Thousands of refugees expected to take to boats for new life as Asia's monsoons end

Refugees                          UNHCR expects surge of ‘irregular’ migrants fleeing Bangladesh and Myanmar to use ‘sailing season’ to reach southern south-east Asian countries

Rohingya migrant children who arrived in Indonesia by boat in May 2015. Photograph: Beawiharta/Reuters

Thousands of “irregular” migrants fleeing Bangladesh and Myanmar are expected to board boats for new countries in coming weeks as the end of the Asia’s south-west monsoon season reopening the Bay of Bengal-Andaman Sea route to south-east Asia.

In three years, the number of people boarding rickety fishing boats – leavingMyanmar and Bangladesh for countries further south in south-east Asia – has nearly tripled to 63,000 people last year, UN figures show.

Each year for the past three years, the post-monsoon spike in the number of people seeking to migrate irregularly by sea across the region has been higher and come earlier in the year.

A similar surge was expected this “sailing season”, Vivian Tan, a spokeswoman for the UNHCR, told Guardian Australia.

“The number of people leaving on smugglers’ boats in the Bay of Bengal have increased in recent years, and that trend is likely to continue unless the root causes [of their migration] are addressed,” she said.

In the first half of 2015, 31,000 people boarded boats in the region, a 34% increase on 2014’s record figure.

Nearly 100,000 people have tried to migrate by sea through the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea since the start of 2014.

After a surge of boat departures early this year, the annual monsoon has brought quiet to the route over the past few months. But with the rainy season ending, a new wave of migration is expected.

After spending the northern summer rescuing migrants in the Mediterranean sea, the privately owned ship MY Phoenix – operating under the name MOAS, the Migrant Offshore Aid Station – is moving to the Bay of Bengal to assist stricken vessels in south-east Asia.

“MOAS will be shedding light on another aspect of this pressing global phenomenon in an area where there is no known NGO rescue presence at sea,” MOAS’s founder, Christopher Catrambone, said. “Once the monsoon rains subside, tens of thousands of Rohingya and others are expected to resume their dangerous sea crossings.”

At least 1,000 people are missing from journeys in 2015, presumed to have died or drowned at sea

But MOAS’s efforts to rescue people might be complicated by the politics of south-east Asia. Only two countries, Cambodia and the Philippines, are parties to the Refugees Convention, which formalises protections for refugees and allows people to claim asylum.

Many countries are expected to refuse to allow MY Phoenix to disembark passengers.

Migrant boat journeys across the Bay of Bengal usually start in the weeks immediately after the rains stop and Eid al-Adha – the Muslim festival of sacrifice – is completed. This year Eid al-Adha fell on 22 and 23 September.

In recent years, the smugglers who broker the trips have begun using larger metal-hulled boats that are less affected by monsoon weather and able to carry more people.

Migrants initially pay between $US50 and $US300 for passage, but many are then extorted by smugglers who demand thousands of dollars more from the passengers or their families, or else the migrants are abandoned at sea, on remote islands, or held in secret jungle camps.

Mass graves holding the bodies of hundreds of migrants were uncovered this year in Malaysia and Thailand.

At least 1,000 people are missing from journeys in 2015, presumed to have died or drowned at sea, or died at the hands of smugglers on land.

In May this year as many as 8,000 people were left stranded on boats at sea because south-east Asian countries such as Thailand, Malaysia andIndonesia refused to let them land and, in some cases, towed their vessels back to sea.

Asylum seekers on board fought each other to death over dwindling food and water supplies, according to observers, and the UN warned the vessels would become “floating coffins” if they were not allowed to land.

The Philippines broke the impasse by offering to accept several thousand refugees, and spurring other countries to allow boats to land.

Many of the migrants have not yet found durable solutions.”

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